Liverpool vs Atlético Progreso prediction, odds and stats (3 Oct 2026)

Uruguay Primera Division · Round 9 · Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00

Liverpool 4th, 9 pts

3 – 2Full time · HT 1-0

Atlético Progreso 7th, 6 pts

Our picks

No prediction was published before kick-off for this match.

Our probabilities

Expected goals 1.54 – 0.67

No probabilities yet for this match.

Scoreline model

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	12	6	2	1
1	16	12	4	1
2	13	9	3	1
3	7	4	1	0
4	3	2	1	0
5	1	1	0	0

Most likely scorelines

LIV 1 – 0 PRO16.0%

LIV 2 – 0 PRO13.0%

LIV 1 – 1 PRO12.2%

LIV 0 – 0 PRO11.9%

LIV 2 – 1 PRO8.7%

LIV 3 – 0 PRO6.7%

Expected goals 2.21. Independent Poisson with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction, strengths from this season's results. The model carries 25% of the final probability; the market consensus carries the rest.

Form

Last matches, all competitions

Liverpool W D L W D

League: 4th · 9 pts from 7
Record: 2-3-2, goals 5:5
Home: 0-2-1, goals 1:2

27 Sep Central Español v Liverpool · URY CL 1-2 W

20 Sep Liverpool v Racing · URY CL 0-0 D

14 Sep Montevideo City Torque v Liverpool · URY CL 3-1 L

6 Sep Liverpool v Boston River · URY CL 1-0 W

30 Aug Cerro Largo v Liverpool · URY CL 1-1 D

Atlético Progreso W W L W W

League: 7th · 6 pts from 7
Record: 2-0-5, goals 6:11
Away: 1-0-3, goals 3:7

26 Sep Atlético Progreso v Racing · URY CL 2-1 W

19 Sep Boston River v Atlético Progreso · URY CL 1-2 W

13 Sep Atlético Progreso v Cerro · URY CL 1-3 L

7 Sep Albion v Atlético Progreso · URY CL 0-1 W

29 Aug Atlético Progreso v Danubio · URY CL 1-0 W

Head to head

0 previous meetings in our database

These teams have not met in the period we cover.

Primera Division table

Competition page

Group 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Wanderers	7	4	3	0	12	4	+8	15	D W D W W W
2	Nacional	7	4	1	2	8	8	0	13	W L W D L W
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	12	6	+6	12	D W W D L D
4	Montevideo City Torque	7	4	0	3	11	11	0	12	W W L W W L
5	Juventud	7	2	2	3	8	11	-3	8	L L D L W D
6	Albion	7	1	3	3	6	8	-2	6	L L W D L D
7	Atlético Progreso	7	2	0	5	6	11	-5	6	L W L L W L
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	5	9	-4	4	L D D D L D

Group 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Peñarol	7	5	1	1	12	3	+9	16	W L W D W W
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	7	5	+2	11	W W D D W L
3	Racing	7	2	4	1	4	3	+1	10	D D D D L W
4	Liverpool	7	2	3	2	5	5	0	9	D W D L W D
5	Central Español	7	2	3	2	4	4	0	9	L W D D L D
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	6	10	-4	9	W L L W W L
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	6	9	-3	6	L D D D L W
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	5	10	-5	5	L L D D L L