Track record

Every pick, graded. Nothing edited, nothing deleted.

Each pick is published before kick-off with the odds of that moment and graded after full time. The hit rate is always printed next to the hit rate it would need just to break even at those odds.

Backtest. The published method applied to past matches at the last odds available before kick-off, graded exactly like the live picks. It shows how the method behaves over a large sample; the live record is the one that grows from the launch date.

Same matches, different ways to pick

Click a row to open that selection
Selection Picks Won Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
All picks 37310 21502 57.6% 52.7% 1.90
Best pick per match 2145 1534 71.5% 71.1% 1.41
Strong 1X2 1003 772 77.0% 73.9% 1.35
Double chance 4194 3397 81.0% 81.0% 1.23
Recommended goal line 4219 3199 75.8% 68.6% 1.46

Best pick: the most probable selection of a match across match result, total goals and both teams to score, when it clears 60%. Strong 1X2: match-result picks at 60% or more. Double chance: the most likely two-outcome cover. Recommended goal line: one over/under line per match, where our probability beats the odds-implied one by the most. A higher hit rate comes with shorter odds, which is why the break-even column sits next to it.

Best pick per match

Backtest on past matches
Hit rate
71.5%
Break-even at these odds: 71.1%
Won / lost
1534 / 611
Graded on the 90-minute score
Average odds
1.41
Recorded at publication
Average probability
67.8%
Our published probability on the picks
Picks
2145
0 void, not counted
Pending
57
Live picks awaiting full time

Won and lost by day

Last 60 days, by kick-off day
156 78 Tue 13 Oct: 13 won, 8 lost Tue 13 Oct: 13 won, 8 lost Wed 14 Oct: 20 won, 12 lost Wed 14 Oct: 20 won, 12 lost Thu 15 Oct: 32 won, 7 lost Thu 15 Oct: 32 won, 7 lost Fri 16 Oct: 25 won, 14 lost Fri 16 Oct: 25 won, 14 lost Sat 17 Oct: 107 won, 49 lost Sat 17 Oct: 107 won, 49 lost Sun 18 Oct: 88 won, 30 lost Sun 18 Oct: 88 won, 30 lost Mon 19 Oct: 16 won, 7 lost Mon 19 Oct: 16 won, 7 lost Tue 20 Oct: 20 won, 6 lost Tue 20 Oct: 20 won, 6 lost Wed 21 Oct: 15 won, 3 lost Wed 21 Oct: 15 won, 3 lost Thu 22 Oct: 22 won, 13 lost Thu 22 Oct: 22 won, 13 lost Fri 23 Oct: 33 won, 5 lost Fri 23 Oct: 33 won, 5 lost Sat 24 Oct: 109 won, 34 lost Sat 24 Oct: 109 won, 34 lost Sun 25 Oct: 89 won, 26 lost Sun 25 Oct: 89 won, 26 lost Mon 26 Oct: 17 won, 5 lost Mon 26 Oct: 17 won, 5 lost Tue 27 Oct: 30 won, 14 lost Tue 27 Oct: 30 won, 14 lost Wed 28 Oct: 32 won, 14 lost Wed 28 Oct: 32 won, 14 lost Thu 29 Oct: 32 won, 10 lost Thu 29 Oct: 32 won, 10 lost Fri 30 Oct: 24 won, 12 lost Fri 30 Oct: 24 won, 12 lost Sat 31 Oct: 87 won, 37 lost Sat 31 Oct: 87 won, 37 lost Sun 1 Nov: 76 won, 26 lost Sun 1 Nov: 76 won, 26 lost Mon 2 Nov: 27 won, 6 lost Mon 2 Nov: 27 won, 6 lost Tue 3 Nov: 7 won, 7 lost Tue 3 Nov: 7 won, 7 lost Wed 4 Nov: 12 won, 1 lost Wed 4 Nov: 12 won, 1 lost Thu 5 Nov: 23 won, 13 lost Thu 5 Nov: 23 won, 13 lost Fri 6 Nov: 25 won, 12 lost Fri 6 Nov: 25 won, 12 lost Sat 7 Nov: 84 won, 28 lost Sat 7 Nov: 84 won, 28 lost Sun 8 Nov: 79 won, 39 lost Sun 8 Nov: 79 won, 39 lost Mon 9 Nov: 3 won, 3 lost Mon 9 Nov: 3 won, 3 lost Tue 10 Nov: 8 won, 2 lost Tue 10 Nov: 8 won, 2 lost Wed 11 Nov: 5 won, 1 lost Wed 11 Nov: 5 won, 1 lost Thu 12 Nov: 9 won, 7 lost Thu 12 Nov: 9 won, 7 lost 13 Oct 28 Oct 12 Nov
Won 1169Lost 451

By month

Month Picks Won Lost Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
Nov 2026 503 358 145 71.2% 71.7% 1.40
Oct 2026 1117 811 306 72.6% 70.8% 1.41
Oct 2024 465 322 143 69.2% 70.9% 1.41
Sep 2024 600 416 184 69.3% 70.4% 1.42
Aug 2024 577 398 179 69.0% 71.1% 1.41

By market

Market Picks Won Lost Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
Match result 1275 991 284 77.7% 74.6% 1.34
Over/under 1176 802 374 68.2% 69.7% 1.44
Both teams to score 811 512 299 63.1% 67.4% 1.48

By confidence

Confidence Picks Won Lost Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
Strong 2733 1990 743 72.8% 72.3% 1.38
Lean 529 315 214 59.5% 64.7% 1.55

By odds band

Pro

By competition

Pro

Latest settled picks

Kick-offPublishedMatchPickProb.OddsCloseResult
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 ★ SL Benfica W win 61% 1.50 1.50 Won
backtest Chambéry Savoie v Grenoble Foot 38 Coupe de France · 0-2 ★ Grenoble Foot 38 win 75% 1.27 1.27 Won
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 ★ Real Betis win 86% 1.08 1.08 Lost
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 ★ Levante win 81% 1.16 1.16 Lost
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 ★ Over 2.5 goals 80% 1.22 1.22 Lost
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 ★ Malta win 63% 1.48 1.48 Lost
backtest Calvo Sotelo v Albacete Copa Del Rey · 0-3 ★ Albacete win 60% 1.53 1.53 Won
backtest Lithuania v Suriname Friendly International · 0-0 ★ Under 2.5 goals 61% 1.53 1.53 Won
backtest Young Boys v Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Club Friendlies 3 · 0-0 ★ Over 2.5 goals 75% 1.25 1.25 Lost
backtest VfL Wolfsburg v FC Union Berlin Club Friendlies 3 · 2-0 ★ Both teams to score: Yes 67% 1.45 1.45 Lost
backtest Borussia Mönchengladbach v Standard Liège Club Friendlies 3 · 1-0 ★ Borussia Mönchengladbach win 61% 1.55 1.55 Won
backtest DSC Arminia Bielefeld v Meppen Club Friendlies 3 · 2-1 ★ Over 2.5 goals 64% 1.40 1.40 Won
backtest Hannover 96 v Havelse Club Friendlies 3 · 6-1 ★ Over 2.5 goals 80% 1.25 1.25 Won
backtest RB Leipzig v Mladá Boleslav Club Friendlies 3 · 4-5 ★ RB Leipzig win 77% 1.25 1.25 Lost
backtest Górnik Zabrze v Polonia Bytom Club Friendlies 3 · 6-0 ★ Górnik Zabrze win 72% 1.29 1.29 Won
backtest New Zealand v India Friendly International · 5-0 ★ New Zealand win 76% 1.18 1.18 Won
backtest Juventus W v OL Lyonnes W UEFA Women's Champions League · 0-6 ★ OL Lyonnes W win 84% 1.12 1.12 Won
backtest Real Valladolid v Santa Clara Club Friendlies 3 · 2-2 ★ Both teams to score: Yes 60% 1.57 1.57 Won
backtest OH Leuven W v Køge UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 ★ Over 2.5 goals 60% 1.65 1.65 Lost
backtest SC Wiedenbrück v Preußen Münster II Club Friendlies 3 · 2-5 ★ Over 2.5 goals 70% 1.40 1.40 Won
backtest Fleury 91 W v Toulouse W Premiere Ligue Women · 7-0 ★ Fleury 91 W win 69% 1.36 1.36 Won
backtest Vietnam v Chinese Taipei Friendly International · 2-0 ★ Vietnam win 86% 1.09 1.09 Won
backtest Tavernes v Valencia Copa Del Rey · 0-6 ★ Over 2.5 goals 96% 1.01 1.01 Won
backtest Roma W v Servette Chênois W UEFA Women's Champions League · 2-1 ★ Roma W win 79% 1.18 1.18 Won
backtest Inter Milano W v Manchester City W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-4 ★ Manchester City W win 67% 1.40 1.40 Won
backtest Paris SG W v FC Bayern München W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-2 ★ Over 2.5 goals 68% 1.44 1.44 Won
backtest Trival Valderas v Leganés Copa Del Rey · 0-1 ★ Leganés win 83% 1.14 1.14 Won
backtest Anaitasuna FT v Deportivo Alavés Copa Del Rey · 1-6 ★ Deportivo Alavés win 89% 1.05 1.05 Won
backtest Pamplona v SD Eibar Copa Del Rey · 0-3 ★ SD Eibar win 73% 1.28 1.28 Won
backtest Häcken W v Chelsea W UEFA Women's Champions League · 0-0 ★ Chelsea W win 82% 1.18 1.18 Lost
backtest Real Madrid W v Paris W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-0 ★ Real Madrid W win 69% 1.33 1.33 Won
backtest Aurora v Universitario de Vinto Liga De Futbol Prof · 1-1 ★ Over 2.5 goals 61% 1.57 1.57 Lost
backtest Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted FA Cup · 1-1 ★ Over 2.5 goals 60% 1.57 1.57 Lost
backtest Kristiansund v Vålerenga Eliteserien · 1-0 ★ Over 2.5 goals 73% 1.36 1.36 Lost
backtest Atletico Madrid W v FC Badalona Women Liga F Moeve · 3-0 ★ Atletico Madrid W win 76% 1.20 1.20 Won
backtest CS Dinamo București v CSM Râmnicu Vâlcea Liga 2 · 2-3 ★ Over 2.5 goals 65% 1.53 1.53 Won
backtest Zakynthos v Niki Volos Super League 2 · 0-2 ★ Niki Volos win 68% 1.30 1.30 Won
backtest Universitario v UCV Moquegua Primera Division · 2-2 ★ Universitario win 75% 1.20 1.20 Lost
backtest Deportivo Garcilaso v Comerciantes Unidos Primera Division · 0-0 ★ Deportivo Garcilaso win 62% 1.50 1.50 Lost
backtest Chattanooga v Los Angeles FC 2 MLS Next Pro · 1-0 ★ Both teams to score: Yes 61% 1.53 1.53 Lost
backtest Goiás v Ponte Preta Serie B · 1-0 ★ Goiás win 83% 1.10 1.10 Won
backtest Club Bolívar v The Strongest Liga De Futbol Prof · 1-0 ★ Over 2.5 goals 67% 1.36 1.36 Lost
backtest Estrela Amadora v Benfica Liga Portugal · 2-3 ★ Benfica win 78% 1.22 1.22 Won
backtest Rio Ave v Sporting Braga Liga Portugal · 0-1 ★ Sporting Braga win 61% 1.53 1.53 Won
backtest Cerro Porteño v Deportivo Recoleta Division 1 · 1-1 ★ Cerro Porteño win 66% 1.30 1.30 Lost
backtest Atlético de Madrid v FC Barcelona La Liga · 1-2 ★ Over 2.5 goals 71% 1.33 1.33 Won
backtest Lens v Olympique Marseille Ligue 1 · 1-2 ★ Both teams to score: Yes 63% 1.53 1.53 Won
backtest Lech Poznań v Zagłębie Lubin Ekstraklasa · 2-2 ★ Lech Poznań win 64% 1.48 1.48 Lost
backtest Santa Fe v Deportivo Pasto Liga BetPlay · 5-0 ★ Santa Fe win 83% 1.04 1.04 Won
backtest Olympiacos F.C. v PAOK Super League · 1-1 ★ Olympiacos F.C. win 61% 1.55 1.55 Lost
backtest FC Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie · 2-3 ★ Both teams to score: Yes 68% 1.40 1.40 Won
backtest TSG Hoffenheim v Schalke 04 Bundesliga · 2-1 ★ TSG Hoffenheim win 61% 1.53 1.53 Won
backtest Würzburger Kickers v Hoffenheim II 3. Liga · 0-1 ★ Both teams to score: Yes 64% 1.44 1.44 Lost
backtest Fredrikstad v Brann Eliteserien · 2-2 ★ Both teams to score: Yes 66% 1.40 1.40 Won
backtest Sint-Truiden v Zulte-Waregem Pro League · 4-1 ★ Over 2.5 goals 66% 1.50 1.50 Won
backtest KSC Lokeren v Dender Challenger Pro League · 2-2 ★ Both teams to score: Yes 61% 1.50 1.50 Won
backtest Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği Super Lig · 3-0 ★ Beşiktaş win 78% 1.16 1.16 Won
backtest Vasas v Ferencvárosi NB I · 0-2 ★ Over 2.5 goals 60% 1.50 1.50 Lost
backtest Universidad Chile v Cobresal Primera Division · 2-1 ★ Universidad Chile win 76% 1.22 1.22 Won
backtest Vitória Guimarães v Porto Liga Portugal · 1-2 ★ Porto win 63% 1.48 1.48 Won