OddLynx
Peru Primera Division · Round 16 ·
Universitario 4th, 29 pts
2 – 2Full time · HT 1-1
UCV Moquegua 17th, 12 pts

Our picks

Backtest
Match result ★ Best pick
Universitario win
75% Strong
Odds at publication: 1.20 Market 75% · model 74%
Lost Backtest
Over/under 3.5 Recommended line
Under 3.5 goals
62% Lean
Odds at publication: 1.57 Market 62% · model 61%
Lost Backtest
Both teams to score
Both teams to score: No
55% Lean
Odds at publication: 1.66 Market 56% · model 52%
Lost Backtest

6 more picks in other markets are listed under "Every market" below.

Our probabilities

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.73
Match result
UNI 75% Draw 17% 2 8%
Over / under 2.5 goals
Over 59% Under 41%
Both teams to score
Yes 45% No 55%

Every market

9 picks, all outcomes with market and model probabilities
MarketOutcomeMarketModelBest oddsBooksOur pick
Match result Universitario win 75% 74% 1.25 6 Strong · 75%
Draw 17% 17% 5.93 6
UCV Moquegua win 8% 9% 13.00 6
Double chance Universitario or draw 46% 91% 1.03 4 Lean · 46%
Universitario or UCV Moquegua 42% 83% 1.15 4
Draw or UCV Moquegua 12% 26% 4.20 4
Over/under 1.5 Over 1.5 goals 80% 83% 1.15 3 Strong · 81%
Under 1.5 goals 20% 17% 5.00 3
Over/under 2.5 Over 2.5 goals 59% 61% 1.61 5 Lean · 59%
Under 2.5 goals 41% 39% 2.38 5
Over/under 3.5 Over 3.5 goals 38% 39% 2.49 4
Under 3.5 goals 62% 61% 1.57 4 Lean · 62%
Both teams to score Both teams to score: Yes 44% 48% 2.22 5
Both teams to score: No 56% 52% 1.74 5 Lean · 55%
Result & both teams to score Universitario win & both score 28% 31% 3.10 1
Universitario win & not both score 46% 43% 1.90 1 Strong · 45%
Draw & both score 12% 12% 7.50 1
Draw & not both score 6% 5% 15.00 1
UCV Moquegua win & both score 4% 5% 21.00 1
UCV Moquegua win & not both score 5% 4% 19.00 1
Goals 2.5 & both teams to score Over 2.5 & both score 35% 40% 2.50 1 Lean · 36%
Over 2.5 & not both score 25% 22% 3.60 1
Under 2.5 & both score 8% 8% 11.00 1
Under 2.5 & not both score 32% 30% 2.75 1
Result & goals 2.5 Universitario win & over 2.5 49% 52% 1.80 2 Strong · 50%
Universitario win & under 2.5 26% 22% 3.50 2
Draw & over 2.5 4% 4% 21.00 2
Draw & under 2.5 13% 13% 7.00 2
UCV Moquegua win & over 2.5 4% 5% 23.00 2
UCV Moquegua win & under 2.5 4% 4% 23.00 2

Scoreline model

H \ A012345
0 5 2 1 0 0 0
1 10 8 3 1 0 0
2 12 9 3 1 0 0
3 10 7 3 1 0 0
4 6 5 2 0 0 0
5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Most likely scorelines
UNI 2 – 0 Away12.5%
UNI 3 – 0 Away10.2%
UNI 1 – 0 Away9.6%
UNI 2 – 1 Away9.1%
UNI 1 – 1 Away8.1%
UNI 3 – 1 Away7.4%

Expected goals 3.17. Independent Poisson with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction, strengths from this season's results. The model carries 25% of the final probability; the market consensus carries the rest.

Odds comparison

Last refreshed 34 minutes ago
Bookmaker1X2Over 2.5UnderBTTS yesBTTS no
bet365 1.20 5.75 13.00 1.61 2.25 2.10 1.66
Pinnacle 1.23 5.25 9.22 1.59 2.13 – –
Betfair 1.13 5.50 12.00 1.57 2.25 2.20 1.57
Marathonbet 1.21 5.45 13.00 1.56 2.15 2.22 1.57
William Hill 1.22 5.00 13.00 – – 2.10 1.67
1xBet 1.25 5.93 10.30 1.54 2.38 2.02 1.74

Best match-result price per outcome is highlighted. Prices are pre-match and move.

Form

Last matches, all competitions
Universitario D W W W D
League
4th · 29 pts from 17
Record
8-5-4, goals 24:15
Home
7-0-2, goals 15:6
5 Nov Universitario v Sport Boys · PER PD 2-2 D
1 Nov Atlético Grau v Universitario · PER PD 1-3 W
25 Oct Universitario v ADC Juan Pablo II · PER PD 3-0 W
18 Oct Alianza Atlético v Universitario · PER PD 1-4 W
11 Oct Universitario v Melgar · PER PD 2-2 D
19 Sep Deportivo Garcilaso v Universitario · PER PD 4-0 L
13 Sep Alianza Lima v Universitario · PER PD 1-2 W
6 Sep Universitario v Comerciantes Unidos · PER PD 2-2 D
29 Aug UTC Cajamarca v Universitario · PER PD 2-4 W
23 Aug Universitario v Los Chankas · PER PD 3-0 W
16 Aug FC Cajamarca v Universitario · PER PD 2-3 W
8 Aug Universitario v Sporting Cristal · PER PD 1-1 D
2 Aug Cienciano v Universitario · PER PD 2-0 L
25 Jul Universitario v Cusco FC · PER PD 2-1 W
18 Jul ADT v Universitario · PER PD 1-2 W
15 Apr Universitario v Coquimbo Unido · SA Copa 0-2 L
8 Apr Deportes Tolima v Universitario · SA Copa 0-0 D
22 Aug Palmeiras v Universitario · SA Copa 0-0 D
15 Aug Universitario v Palmeiras · SA Copa 0-4 L
28 May River Plate v Universitario · SA Copa 1-1 D
UCV Moquegua D L L W L
League
17th · 12 pts from 16
Record
2-6-8, goals 10:24
Away
2-2-4, goals 5:12
1 Nov UCV Moquegua v Los Chankas · PER PD 0-0 D
28 Oct ADT v UCV Moquegua · PER PD 2-0 L
25 Oct UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima · PER PD 0-1 L
18 Oct FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua · PER PD 0-1 W
8 Oct UCV Moquegua v Cienciano · PER PD 0-2 L
20 Sep ADC Juan Pablo II v UCV Moquegua · PER PD 4-0 L
13 Sep UCV Moquegua v Sporting Cristal · PER PD 1-2 L
5 Sep Cusco FC v UCV Moquegua · PER PD 2-0 L
30 Aug UCV Moquegua v Alianza Atlético · PER PD 1-4 L
22 Aug Sport Huancayo v UCV Moquegua · PER PD 0-2 W
16 Aug UCV Moquegua v Sport Boys · PER PD 1-1 D
9 Aug Deportivo Garcilaso v UCV Moquegua · PER PD 2-0 L
2 Aug UCV Moquegua v Melgar · PER PD 0-0 D
26 Jul UTC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua · PER PD 0-0 D
18 Jul UCV Moquegua v Comerciantes Unidos · PER PD 2-2 D

Head to head

0 previous meetings in our database
These teams have not met in the period we cover.

Primera Division table

Competition page
#Team PWDL GFGAGDPts Form
1 Alianza Lima 171241 308+22 40 W W D W W D
1 Sport Huancayo 161114 2718+9 34 W W W L W W
2 Los Chankas 171043 2521+4 34 L L D W L D
2 Sporting Cristal 161024 3518+17 32 W W L W W D
3 Universitario 16952 3524+11 32 D W W W D D
3 Cienciano 171034 3422+12 33 D W W L D W
4 Universitario 17854 2415+9 29 L W D L D W
4 Deportivo Garcilaso 16925 2917+12 29 L L W L W D
5 Melgar 16853 2718+9 29 D W W D L W
5 Melgar 17845 2920+9 28 L W D W D W
6 Alianza Lima 16853 2416+8 29 W W W L W D
6 Cusco FC 17836 2124-3 27 W D D L W W
7 Deportivo Garcilaso 17755 2118+3 26 W W W W D W
7 Alianza Atlético 16916 2930-1 28 W L L W W L
8 Sport Boys 16754 2216+6 26 L L W W D D
8 Alianza Atlético 17566 2018+2 21 W W L W D L
9 Comerciantes Unidos 17566 1820-2 21 W L D L D L
9 ADC Juan Pablo II 16745 2619+7 25 D W L W L L
10 Cusco FC 16808 2523+2 24 L L W W L L
10 ADT 17557 2221+1 20 W W D W L L
11 Atlético Grau 16637 2023-3 21 D L D L L W
11 Sport Boys 17557 1519-4 20 D L D W D W
12 Cienciano 16529 2024-4 17 W W L W L L
12 Sporting Cristal 17548 2830-2 19 L D D L W L
13 UTC Cajamarca 17467 2126-5 18 D L L L D D
13 Comerciantes Unidos 16376 2627-1 16 D L W D D D
14 FC Cajamarca 164210 2337-14 14 D L L L L W
14 UCV Moquegua 17539 1724-7 18 W L D L D L
15 Los Chankas 16358 1531-16 14 D W L L D D
15 FC Cajamarca 17458 2328-5 17 L W W W D D
16 Atlético Grau 17449 1218-6 16 L L L W L W
16 ADT 16268 1427-13 12 D L D W D D
17 Sport Huancayo 17449 2131-10 16 L L W L D L
17 UCV Moquegua 16268 1024-14 12 L W L L D D
18 UTC Cajamarca 161312 1732-15 6 L L L W L D
18 ADC Juan Pablo II 17449 2240-18 16 D L L L D L