Track record

Every pick, graded. Nothing edited, nothing deleted.

Each pick is published before kick-off with the odds of that moment and graded after full time. The hit rate is always printed next to the hit rate it would need just to break even at those odds.

Backtest. The published method applied to past matches at the last odds available before kick-off, graded exactly like the live picks. It shows how the method behaves over a large sample; the live record is the one that grows from the launch date.

Same matches, different ways to pick

Click a row to open that selection
Selection Picks Won Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
All picks 37310 21502 57.6% 52.7% 1.90
Best pick per match 2145 1534 71.5% 71.1% 1.41
Strong 1X2 1003 772 77.0% 73.9% 1.35
Double chance 4194 3397 81.0% 81.0% 1.23
Recommended goal line 4219 3199 75.8% 68.6% 1.46

Best pick: the most probable selection of a match across match result, total goals and both teams to score, when it clears 60%. Strong 1X2: match-result picks at 60% or more. Double chance: the most likely two-outcome cover. Recommended goal line: one over/under line per match, where our probability beats the odds-implied one by the most. A higher hit rate comes with shorter odds, which is why the break-even column sits next to it.

All picks

Backtest on past matches
Hit rate
57.6%
Break-even at these odds: 52.7%
Won / lost
21502 / 15808
Graded on the 90-minute score
Average odds
1.90
Recorded at publication
Average probability
51.0%
Our published probability on the picks
Picks
37310
0 void, not counted
Pending
1202
Live picks awaiting full time

Won and lost by day

Last 60 days, by kick-off day
2697 1349 Tue 13 Oct: 174 won, 139 lost Tue 13 Oct: 174 won, 139 lost Wed 14 Oct: 256 won, 180 lost Wed 14 Oct: 256 won, 180 lost Thu 15 Oct: 317 won, 206 lost Thu 15 Oct: 317 won, 206 lost Fri 16 Oct: 321 won, 260 lost Fri 16 Oct: 321 won, 260 lost Sat 17 Oct: 1552 won, 1145 lost Sat 17 Oct: 1552 won, 1145 lost Sun 18 Oct: 1097 won, 785 lost Sun 18 Oct: 1097 won, 785 lost Mon 19 Oct: 224 won, 163 lost Mon 19 Oct: 224 won, 163 lost Tue 20 Oct: 302 won, 182 lost Tue 20 Oct: 302 won, 182 lost Wed 21 Oct: 140 won, 87 lost Wed 21 Oct: 140 won, 87 lost Thu 22 Oct: 250 won, 182 lost Thu 22 Oct: 250 won, 182 lost Fri 23 Oct: 429 won, 311 lost Fri 23 Oct: 429 won, 311 lost Sat 24 Oct: 1452 won, 1023 lost Sat 24 Oct: 1452 won, 1023 lost Sun 25 Oct: 1068 won, 701 lost Sun 25 Oct: 1068 won, 701 lost Mon 26 Oct: 238 won, 166 lost Mon 26 Oct: 238 won, 166 lost Tue 27 Oct: 411 won, 274 lost Tue 27 Oct: 411 won, 274 lost Wed 28 Oct: 414 won, 340 lost Wed 28 Oct: 414 won, 340 lost Thu 29 Oct: 392 won, 250 lost Thu 29 Oct: 392 won, 250 lost Fri 30 Oct: 366 won, 259 lost Fri 30 Oct: 366 won, 259 lost Sat 31 Oct: 1309 won, 939 lost Sat 31 Oct: 1309 won, 939 lost Sun 1 Nov: 1016 won, 674 lost Sun 1 Nov: 1016 won, 674 lost Mon 2 Nov: 393 won, 218 lost Mon 2 Nov: 393 won, 218 lost Tue 3 Nov: 166 won, 164 lost Tue 3 Nov: 166 won, 164 lost Wed 4 Nov: 153 won, 93 lost Wed 4 Nov: 153 won, 93 lost Thu 5 Nov: 265 won, 207 lost Thu 5 Nov: 265 won, 207 lost Fri 6 Nov: 414 won, 293 lost Fri 6 Nov: 414 won, 293 lost Sat 7 Nov: 1324 won, 970 lost Sat 7 Nov: 1324 won, 970 lost Sun 8 Nov: 1064 won, 792 lost Sun 8 Nov: 1064 won, 792 lost Mon 9 Nov: 92 won, 82 lost Mon 9 Nov: 92 won, 82 lost Tue 10 Nov: 83 won, 38 lost Tue 10 Nov: 83 won, 38 lost Wed 11 Nov: 34 won, 21 lost Wed 11 Nov: 34 won, 21 lost Thu 12 Nov: 84 won, 59 lost Thu 12 Nov: 84 won, 59 lost 13 Oct 28 Oct 12 Nov
Won 15800Lost 11203

By month

Month Picks Won Lost Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
Nov 2026 8699 5088 3611 58.5% 52.9% 1.89
Oct 2026 18304 10712 7592 58.5% 53.0% 1.89
Oct 2024 9503 5253 4250 55.3% 51.6% 1.94
Sep 2024 10431 5766 4665 55.3% 52.3% 1.91
Aug 2024 11336 6288 5048 55.5% 52.0% 1.92

By market

Market Picks Won Lost Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
Match result 6693 3640 3053 54.4% 52.6% 1.90
Double chance 6553 5249 1304 80.1% 80.6% 1.24
Over/under 19708 13503 6205 68.5% 68.8% 1.45
Both teams to score 6588 3713 2875 56.4% 60.2% 1.66
Result & both teams to score 6156 1934 4222 31.4% 31.1% 3.21
Goals & both teams to score 6148 2822 3326 45.9% 49.4% 2.02
Result & goals 6427 2246 4181 34.9% 34.8% 2.88

By confidence

Confidence Picks Won Lost Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
Strong 18702 13275 5427 71.0% 71.1% 1.41
Lean 15383 8059 7324 52.4% 53.9% 1.86
Toss-up 24188 11773 12415 48.7% 43.0% 2.33

By odds band

Pro

By competition

Pro

Latest settled picks

Kick-offPublishedMatchPickProb.OddsCloseResult
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 SL Benfica W win & over 2.5 38% 2.30 2.30 Won
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 Over 2.5 & both score 40% 2.20 2.20 Won
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 SL Benfica W win & not both score 37% 2.37 2.37 Lost
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 Under 3.5 goals 65% 1.54 1.54 Lost
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 Over 1.5 goals 79% 1.19 1.19 Won
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 SL Benfica W or draw 41% 1.18 1.18 Won
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 Both teams to score: Yes 53% 1.80 1.80 Won
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 Over 2.5 goals 56% 1.66 1.66 Won
backtest SL Benfica W v Austria Wien W UEFA Women's Champions League · 3-1 ★ SL Benfica W win 61% 1.50 1.50 Won
backtest Chambéry Savoie v Grenoble Foot 38 Coupe de France · 0-2 Over 2.5 & both score 42% 2.10 2.10 Lost
backtest Chambéry Savoie v Grenoble Foot 38 Coupe de France · 0-2 Grenoble Foot 38 win & not both score 41% 2.10 2.10 Won
backtest Chambéry Savoie v Grenoble Foot 38 Coupe de France · 0-2 Under 3.5 goals 53% 1.89 1.89 Won
backtest Chambéry Savoie v Grenoble Foot 38 Coupe de France · 0-2 Over 1.5 goals 86% 1.08 1.08 Won
backtest Chambéry Savoie v Grenoble Foot 38 Coupe de France · 0-2 Draw or Grenoble Foot 38 45% 1.07 1.07 Won
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 Real Betis win & over 2.5 67% 1.30 1.30 Lost
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 Over 2.5 & not both score 39% 2.30 2.30 Lost
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 Real Betis win & not both score 55% 1.57 1.57 Lost
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 Over 3.5 goals 53% 1.81 1.81 Won
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 Over 1.5 goals 88% 1.06 1.06 Won
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 Draw or Real Betis 47% 1.02 1.02 Won
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 Levante win & over 2.5 66% 1.33 1.33 Lost
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 Over 2.5 & not both score 37% 2.40 2.40 Lost
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 Levante win & not both score 52% 1.66 1.66 Lost
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 Under 3.5 goals 51% 2.00 2.00 Won
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 Over 1.5 goals 86% 1.08 1.08 Won
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 Draw or Levante 46% 1.04 1.04 Won
backtest Chambéry Savoie v Grenoble Foot 38 Coupe de France · 0-2 Both teams to score: Yes 52% 1.83 1.83 Lost
backtest Chambéry Savoie v Grenoble Foot 38 Coupe de France · 0-2 Over 2.5 goals 67% 1.44 1.44 Lost
backtest Chambéry Savoie v Grenoble Foot 38 Coupe de France · 0-2 ★ Grenoble Foot 38 win 75% 1.27 1.27 Won
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 Both teams to score: No 59% 1.50 1.50 Lost
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 Over 2.5 goals 71% 1.33 1.33 Won
backtest Navalcarnero v Real Betis Copa Del Rey · 2-2 ★ Real Betis win 86% 1.08 1.08 Lost
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 Both teams to score: No 57% 1.57 1.57 Lost
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 Over 2.5 goals 69% 1.30 1.30 Lost
backtest Tarancón v Levante Copa Del Rey · 1-1 ★ Levante win 81% 1.16 1.16 Lost
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 Barcelona W win & over 2.5 67% 1.29 1.29 Lost
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 Over 2.5 & both score 55% 1.61 1.61 Lost
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 Barcelona W win & both score 41% 2.10 2.10 Lost
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 Over 3.5 goals 64% 1.46 1.46 Lost
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 Over 1.5 goals 90% 1.05 1.05 Won
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 Barcelona W or draw 45% 1.05 1.05 Won
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 Both teams to score: Yes 63% 1.50 1.50 Won
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 ★ Over 2.5 goals 80% 1.22 1.22 Lost
backtest Barcelona W v Arsenal W UEFA Women's Champions League · 1-1 Barcelona W win 79% 1.20 1.20 Lost
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 Malta win & over 2.5 33% 2.62 2.62 Lost
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 Under 2.5 & not both score 47% 1.90 1.90 Lost
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 Malta win & not both score 43% 2.00 2.00 Lost
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 Under 3.5 goals 77% 1.23 1.23 Won
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 Over 1.5 goals 68% 1.39 1.39 Won
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 Malta or draw 43% 1.13 1.13 Won
backtest Calvo Sotelo v Albacete Copa Del Rey · 0-3 Albacete win & over 2.5 41% 2.00 2.00 Won
backtest Calvo Sotelo v Albacete Copa Del Rey · 0-3 Over 2.5 & both score 40% 2.20 2.20 Lost
backtest Calvo Sotelo v Albacete Copa Del Rey · 0-3 Albacete win & not both score 37% 2.37 2.37 Won
backtest Calvo Sotelo v Albacete Copa Del Rey · 0-3 Under 3.5 goals 64% 1.50 1.50 Won
backtest Calvo Sotelo v Albacete Copa Del Rey · 0-3 Over 1.5 goals 78% 1.21 1.21 Won
backtest Calvo Sotelo v Albacete Copa Del Rey · 0-3 Draw or Albacete 41% 1.15 1.15 Won
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 Both teams to score: No 61% 1.44 1.44 Lost
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 Under 2.5 goals 57% 1.65 1.65 Won
backtest Malta v Eswatini Friendly International · 1-1 ★ Malta win 63% 1.48 1.48 Lost
backtest Calvo Sotelo v Albacete Copa Del Rey · 0-3 Both teams to score: Yes 54% 1.90 1.90 Lost