Botafogo SP vs Ceará prediction, odds and stats (13 Oct 2026)

Brazil Serie B · Round 33 · Tue 13 Oct 2026, 00:00

Botafogo SP 12nd, 51 pts

1 – 0Full time · HT 0-0

Ceará 16th, 43 pts

Our picks

Backtest

Over/under 2.5 ★ Best pick

Under 2.5 goals

60% Lean

Odds at publication: 1.57 Market 62% · model 57%

Won Backtest

Both teams to score

Both teams to score: No

54% Toss-up

Odds at publication: 1.72 Market 54% · model 55%

Won Backtest

Match result

Botafogo SP win

45% Lean

Odds at publication: 2.30 Market 42% · model 56%

Won Backtest

6 more picks in other markets are listed under "Every market" below.

Our probabilities

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.80

Match result

BOT 45% Draw 30% CEA 25%

Over / under 2.5 goals

Over 40% Under 60%

Both teams to score

Yes 46% No 54%

Every market

9 picks, all outcomes with market and model probabilities

Market	Outcome	Market	Model	Best odds	Books	Our pick
Match result	Botafogo SP win	42%	55%	2.30	7	Lean · 45%
	Draw	31%	27%	3.10	7
	Ceará win	28%	18%	3.64	7
Double chance	Botafogo SP or draw	36%	82%	1.30	5	Toss-up · 38%
	Botafogo SP or Ceará	35%	73%	1.36	5
	Draw or Ceará	29%	45%	1.62	5
Over/under 1.5	Over 1.5 goals	64%	70%	1.49	5	Strong · 65%
	Under 1.5 goals	36%	30%	2.71	5
Over/under 2.5	Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	2.57	6
	Under 2.5 goals	62%	57%	1.57	6	Lean · 60%
Over/under 3.5	Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	5.00	5
	Under 3.5 goals	80%	78%	1.19	5	Strong · 80%
Both teams to score	Both teams to score: Yes	46%	45%	2.05	6
	Both teams to score: No	54%	55%	1.75	6	Toss-up · 54%
Result & both teams to score	Botafogo SP win & both score	17%	21%	5.00	1
	Botafogo SP win & not both score	25%	35%	3.40	1	Toss-up · 28%
	Draw & both score	19%	17%	4.50	1
	Draw & not both score	12%	10%	7.00	1
	Ceará win & both score	10%	8%	8.50	1
	Ceará win & not both score	16%	10%	5.50	1
Goals 2.5 & both teams to score	Over 2.5 & both score	32%	32%	2.75	1
	Over 2.5 & not both score	8%	11%	11.00	1
	Under 2.5 & both score	15%	13%	6.00	1
	Under 2.5 & not both score	45%	44%	2.00	1	Lean · 45%
Result & goals 2.5	Botafogo SP win & over 2.5	21%	30%	4.33	3
	Botafogo SP win & under 2.5	21%	25%	4.00	3
	Draw & over 2.5	6%	4%	15.00	3
	Draw & under 2.5	24%	23%	3.60	3	Toss-up · 24%
	Ceará win & over 2.5	13%	9%	7.00	3
	Ceará win & under 2.5	15%	9%	6.50	3

Scoreline model

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	10	6	3	1
1	14	13	5	1
2	12	9	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	2	2	1	0
5	1	1	0	0

Most likely scorelines

BOT 1 – 0 CEA13.5%

BOT 1 – 1 CEA12.6%

BOT 2 – 0 CEA11.6%

BOT 0 – 0 CEA10.0%

BOT 2 – 1 CEA9.3%

BOT 0 – 1 CEA6.4%

Expected goals 2.40. Independent Poisson with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction, strengths from this season's results. The model carries 25% of the final probability; the market consensus carries the rest.

Odds comparison

Last refreshed 54 minutes ago

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Over 2.5	Under	BTTS yes	BTTS no
bet365	2.30	3.00	3.40	2.35	1.57	2.00	1.72
Pinnacle	2.30	3.04	3.64	2.57	1.53	–	–
Betfair	2.15	3.00	3.25	2.55	1.45	2.05	1.67
Marathonbet	2.14	3.10	3.38	2.33	1.55	1.99	1.71
BetVictor	2.15	3.00	3.25	2.33	1.51	2.05	1.67
William Hill	2.30	2.90	3.25	–	–	2.00	1.75
1xBet	2.26	3.01	3.41	2.48	1.50	2.01	1.74

Best match-result price per outcome is highlighted. Prices are pre-match and move.

Form

Last matches, all competitions

Botafogo SP W L W D L

League: 12nd · 51 pts from 37
Record: 14-9-14, goals 45:39
Home: 8-4-7, goals 31:23

7 Oct Operário PR v Botafogo SP · BRA CB SB 1-2 W

3 Oct Botafogo SP v Vila Nova · BRA CB SB 0-1 L

29 Sep Botafogo SP v Ponte Preta · BRA CB SB 2-0 W

19 Sep Athletic Club v Botafogo SP · BRA CB SB 1-1 D

14 Sep Botafogo SP v Goiás · BRA CB SB 1-3 L

Ceará W W D W D

League: 16th · 43 pts from 37
Record: 11-10-16, goals 38:47
Away: 3-6-9, goals 16:25

8 Oct Ceará v Criciúma · BRA CB SB 1-0 W

3 Oct Avaí v Ceará · BRA CB SB 0-1 W

26 Sep Operário PR v Ceará · BRA CB SB 2-2 D

18 Sep Ceará v Novorizontino · BRA CB SB 2-1 W

13 Sep Fortaleza v Ceará · BRA CB SB 1-1 D

Head to head

0 previous meetings in our database

These teams have not met in the period we cover.

Serie B table

Competition page

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Novorizontino	37	20	10	7	66	32	+34	70	W W D W W W
2	Juventude	37	19	11	7	49	26	+23	68	W D D W D W
3	Vila Nova	37	19	9	9	53	38	+15	66	D W D L D W
4	Criciúma	37	18	8	11	38	31	+7	62	L W W L W L
5	Fortaleza	37	16	14	7	44	33	+11	62	W D W D D L
6	CRB	37	17	7	13	57	51	+6	58	W D L W L W
7	Goiás	37	17	7	13	39	41	-2	58	W W D W W W
8	Atlético GO	37	15	13	9	45	35	+10	58	L D D L D W
9	Sport Recife	37	14	13	10	50	42	+8	55	W D L W D L
10	Operário PR	37	15	9	13	49	50	-1	54	L L L W L W
11	São Bernardo	37	14	10	13	52	42	+10	52	L D L W W L
12	Botafogo SP	37	14	9	14	45	39	+6	51	W W W W D W
13	Cuiabá	37	11	14	12	34	32	+2	47	D L L L L L
14	Athletic Club	37	11	14	12	44	44	0	47	L D D L W L
15	Náutico	38	12	10	16	41	51	-10	46	L D L W L L
16	Ceará	37	11	10	16	38	47	-9	43	W L D L L L
17	Avaí	37	11	7	19	35	47	-12	40	W W D L L W
18	Londrina	38	9	8	21	47	59	-12	35	D W L L L W
19	América Mineiro	37	8	5	24	27	55	-28	29	L L W W W W
20	Ponte Preta	37	3	6	28	21	79	-58	15	L L D D L L

Why these picks

7 bookmakers priced the match; the fair match-result probabilities after removing the margin are 42% / 31% / 28%.
Botafogo SP form: W L W D L · Ceará form: W W D W D
Positions at publication: Botafogo SP 16th, Ceará 14th.
Model expected goals 1.61 – 0.79 from attack/defence ratings over 20 and 20 games.
Sharp reference (Pinnacle) price for the match-result pick: 2.30; best available 2.30, average 2.23.

Each pick is simply the most likely outcome of its market. A high probability means low odds, and low odds do not mean profit. How this works.

Details

Competition: Brazil Serie B
Kick-off: Tue 13 Oct 2026, 00:00
Round: 33
Status: Full time
Result: Botafogo SP won after full-time.

Odds shown were recorded when the picks were published and will have moved. This page is information, not advice. 18+.