Uruguay Primera Division · Round 12 ·
Our picks
BacktestOver/under 2.5 Recommended line
Under 2.5 goals
56% Lean
Lost
Backtest
Both teams to score
Both teams to score: No
53% Toss-up
Lost
Backtest
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado win
51% Lean
Won
Backtest
6 more picks in other markets are listed under "Every market" below.
Our probabilities
Expected goals 1.39 – 0.57Match result
Over / under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Every market
9 picks, all outcomes with market and model probabilities
| Market | Outcome | Market | Model | Best odds | Books | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Deportivo Maldonado win | 49% | 56% | 1.95 | 7 | Lean · 51% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | 7 | ||
| Danubio win | 23% | 14% | 4.51 | 7 | ||
| Double chance | Deportivo Maldonado or draw | 38% | 86% | 1.25 | 5 | Toss-up · 40% |
| Deportivo Maldonado or Danubio | 37% | 71% | 1.30 | 5 | ||
| Draw or Danubio | 25% | 44% | 1.86 | 5 | ||
| Over/under 1.5 | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 59% | 1.33 | 5 | Strong · 69% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28% | 41% | 3.50 | 5 | ||
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 31% | 2.05 | 6 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 69% | 1.85 | 6 | Lean · 56% | |
| Over/under 3.5 | Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 14% | 3.60 | 5 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 86% | 1.34 | 5 | Strong · 76% | |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score: Yes | 51% | 34% | 1.82 | 6 | |
| Both teams to score: No | 49% | 66% | 1.93 | 6 | Toss-up · 53% | |
| Result & both teams to score | Deportivo Maldonado win & both score | 22% | 15% | 4.00 | 1 | |
| Deportivo Maldonado win & not both score | 27% | 42% | 3.25 | 1 | Toss-up · 31% | |
| Draw & both score | 19% | 14% | 4.50 | 1 | ||
| Draw & not both score | 9% | 15% | 10.00 | 1 | ||
| Danubio win & both score | 11% | 4% | 8.00 | 1 | ||
| Danubio win & not both score | 12% | 10% | 7.00 | 1 | ||
| Goals 2.5 & both teams to score | Over 2.5 & both score | 39% | 22% | 2.30 | 1 | |
| Over 2.5 & not both score | 10% | 10% | 8.50 | 1 | ||
| Under 2.5 & both score | 14% | 12% | 6.50 | 1 | ||
| Under 2.5 & not both score | 37% | 57% | 2.37 | 1 | Lean · 42% | |
| Result & goals 2.5 | Deportivo Maldonado win & over 2.5 | 28% | 24% | 3.25 | 2 | Toss-up · 27% |
| Deportivo Maldonado win & under 2.5 | 20% | 32% | 4.33 | 2 | ||
| Draw & over 2.5 | 8% | 2% | 12.00 | 2 | ||
| Draw & under 2.5 | 20% | 27% | 4.33 | 2 | ||
| Danubio win & over 2.5 | 13% | 5% | 7.00 | 2 | ||
| Danubio win & under 2.5 | 11% | 9% | 8.50 | 2 |
Scoreline model
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most likely scorelines
CDM 1 – 0 DFC18.7%
CDM 0 – 0 DFC14.9%
CDM 2 – 0 DFC13.6%
CDM 1 – 1 DFC12.1%
CDM 2 – 1 DFC7.8%
CDM 0 – 1 DFC7.1%
Expected goals 1.96. Independent Poisson with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction, strengths from this season's results. The model carries 25% of the final probability; the market consensus carries the rest.
Odds comparison
Last refreshed 35 minutes ago| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under | BTTS yes | BTTS no |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.00 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.36 | 4.51 | 2.05 | 1.79 | – | – |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.87 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.34 | 3.80 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.81 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.90 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.80 | – | – | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.34 | 4.18 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.82 | 1.92 |
Best match-result price per outcome is highlighted. Prices are pre-match and move.
Form
Last matches, all competitions
Deportivo Maldonado
L
D
W
W
W
- League
- 3rd · 12 pts from 7
- Record
- 3-3-1, goals 12:6
- Home
- 2-2-0, goals 7:2
Danubio
W
L
W
L
D
- League
- 8th · 4 pts from 7
- Record
- 0-4-3, goals 5:9
- Away
- 0-2-2, goals 3:6
Head to head
0 previous meetings in our database
These teams have not met in the period we cover.
Primera Division table
Competition page| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Wanderers
|
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 15 | D W D W W W |
| 2 |
 Nacional
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 | W L W D L W |
| 3 |
 Deportivo Maldonado
|
7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 12 | D W W D L D |
| 4 |
 Montevideo City Torque
|
7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 | W W L W W L |
| 5 |
 Juventud
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | L L D L W D |
| 6 |
 Albion
|
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 | L L W D L D |
| 7 |
 Atlético Progreso
|
7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 | L W L L W L |
| 8 |
 Danubio
|
7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | L D D D L D |