Track record

Every pick, graded. Nothing edited, nothing deleted.

Each pick is published before kick-off with the odds of that moment and graded after full time. The hit rate is always printed next to the hit rate it would need just to break even at those odds.

Backtest. The published method applied to past matches at the last odds available before kick-off, graded exactly like the live picks. It shows how the method behaves over a large sample; the live record is the one that grows from the launch date.

Same matches, different ways to pick

Click a row to open that selection
Selection Picks Won Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
All picks 37310 21502 57.6% 52.7% 1.90
Best pick per match 2145 1534 71.5% 71.1% 1.41
Strong 1X2 1003 772 77.0% 73.9% 1.35
Double chance 4194 3397 81.0% 81.0% 1.23
Recommended goal line 4219 3199 75.8% 68.6% 1.46

Best pick: the most probable selection of a match across match result, total goals and both teams to score, when it clears 60%. Strong 1X2: match-result picks at 60% or more. Double chance: the most likely two-outcome cover. Recommended goal line: one over/under line per match, where our probability beats the odds-implied one by the most. A higher hit rate comes with shorter odds, which is why the break-even column sits next to it.

Strong 1X2

Backtest on past matches
Hit rate
77.0%
Break-even at these odds: 73.9%
Won / lost
772 / 231
Graded on the 90-minute score
Average odds
1.35
Recorded at publication
Average probability
70.3%
Our published probability on the picks
Picks
1003
0 void, not counted
Pending
36
Live picks awaiting full time

Won and lost by day

Last 60 days, by kick-off day
65 33 Tue 13 Oct: 6 won, 4 lost Tue 13 Oct: 6 won, 4 lost Wed 14 Oct: 8 won, 4 lost Wed 14 Oct: 8 won, 4 lost Thu 15 Oct: 21 won, 2 lost Thu 15 Oct: 21 won, 2 lost Fri 16 Oct: 10 won, 1 lost Fri 16 Oct: 10 won, 1 lost Sat 17 Oct: 49 won, 16 lost Sat 17 Oct: 49 won, 16 lost Sun 18 Oct: 33 won, 10 lost Sun 18 Oct: 33 won, 10 lost Mon 19 Oct: 4 won, 2 lost Mon 19 Oct: 4 won, 2 lost Tue 20 Oct: 11 won, 5 lost Tue 20 Oct: 11 won, 5 lost Wed 21 Oct: 9 won, 1 lost Wed 21 Oct: 9 won, 1 lost Thu 22 Oct: 13 won, 6 lost Thu 22 Oct: 13 won, 6 lost Fri 23 Oct: 13 won, 2 lost Fri 23 Oct: 13 won, 2 lost Sat 24 Oct: 50 won, 9 lost Sat 24 Oct: 50 won, 9 lost Sun 25 Oct: 34 won, 8 lost Sun 25 Oct: 34 won, 8 lost Mon 26 Oct: 8 won, 2 lost Mon 26 Oct: 8 won, 2 lost Tue 27 Oct: 22 won, 7 lost Tue 27 Oct: 22 won, 7 lost Wed 28 Oct: 21 won, 10 lost Wed 28 Oct: 21 won, 10 lost Thu 29 Oct: 23 won, 5 lost Thu 29 Oct: 23 won, 5 lost Fri 30 Oct: 8 won, 6 lost Fri 30 Oct: 8 won, 6 lost Sat 31 Oct: 36 won, 12 lost Sat 31 Oct: 36 won, 12 lost Sun 1 Nov: 40 won, 5 lost Sun 1 Nov: 40 won, 5 lost Mon 2 Nov: 11 won, 1 lost Mon 2 Nov: 11 won, 1 lost Tue 3 Nov: 3 won, 3 lost Tue 3 Nov: 3 won, 3 lost Wed 4 Nov: 7 won, 1 lost Wed 4 Nov: 7 won, 1 lost Thu 5 Nov: 13 won, 7 lost Thu 5 Nov: 13 won, 7 lost Fri 6 Nov: 9 won, 2 lost Fri 6 Nov: 9 won, 2 lost Sat 7 Nov: 48 won, 6 lost Sat 7 Nov: 48 won, 6 lost Sun 8 Nov: 34 won, 18 lost Sun 8 Nov: 34 won, 18 lost Mon 9 Nov: 2 won, 1 lost Mon 9 Nov: 2 won, 1 lost Tue 10 Nov: 8 won, 1 lost Tue 10 Nov: 8 won, 1 lost Wed 11 Nov: 3 won, 0 lost Thu 12 Nov: 7 won, 5 lost Thu 12 Nov: 7 won, 5 lost 13 Oct 28 Oct 12 Nov
Won 564Lost 162

By month

Month Picks Won Lost Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
Nov 2026 235 185 50 78.7% 75.2% 1.33
Oct 2026 491 379 112 77.2% 73.0% 1.37
Oct 2024 216 164 52 75.9% 74.5% 1.34
Sep 2024 267 199 68 74.5% 73.2% 1.37
Aug 2024 295 223 72 75.6% 74.2% 1.35

By market

Market Picks Won Lost Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
Match result 1504 1150 354 76.5% 73.8% 1.35

By confidence

Confidence Picks Won Lost Hit rate Break-even Avg odds
Strong 1504 1150 354 76.5% 73.8% 1.35

By odds band

Pro

By competition

Pro

Latest settled picks

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